2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

The Oscar race is in full swing, and the strongest contenders are building momentum with early critics’ awards heading into the holidays and January Oscar nominations voting.

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Here’s the Oscar timeline, with our prediction chart below.

Launching at Sundance was Kenneth Lonergan’s emotionally devastating drama “Manchester By the Sea,” starring Best Actor frontrunner Casey Affleck and strong supporting players Michelle Williams and Lucas Hedges. Will Amazon Studios (with distributor Roadside Attractions) do better in the Oscar derby than rival Netflix did last year? Their more conventional, theatrically-friendly approach is showing great success.

Breaking out of the Cannes Film Festival in May was David Mackenzie’s modern western “Hell or High Water,” starring Jeff Bridges as a Texas marshall chasing bankrobber brothers Chris Pine and Ben Foster. Among a more diverse set of contenders than last year, “Loving,” the heart-tugging Jeff Nichols drama that emerged from Cannes, is a well-told true story boasting two strong acting contenders (Joel Edgerton and Ruth Negga) that opens up discussions on America’s fraught relationship with race.

“Loving” went on to Toronto, along with Focus Features’ well-received “A Monster Calls,” a four-hankie mother-son fantasy drama from Spanish filmmaker J.A. Bayona (“The Impossible”) starring “Theory of Everything” nominee Felicity Jones, a Supporting Actress candidate, which could grab needed attention when it finally opens at year’s end.

The fall fests proved a crucible for a raft of other critics’ faves.

“Hacksaw Ridge”

Summit Entertainment

Venice introduced “Jackie,” Pablo Larrain’s first film in English, starring Natalie Portman as JFK’s grieving widow, which Fox Searchlight scooped up in Toronto for December 9th release. Portman won the Critics’ Choice award along with Globe and SAG nominations. Also playing well at Venice was “Braveheart” Oscar-winner Mel Gibson’s tough World War II war movie “Hacksaw Ridge” (Lionsgate, November 4), which reminded critics and audiences of what an effective director he is. Lauded Andrew Garfield could land a nomination — as a sensitive but tough Pacifist medic who wants to serve his country by not killing people but by saving their lives — as well as a number of ace craftspeople. But will the Academy forgive director Gibson for his trespasses?

Telluride broke out Damien Chazelle’s audacious musical romance “La La Land,” starring singer-dancers Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling, as well as Barry Jenkins’ coming-of-age ensemble drama “Moonlight” (A24), featuring Supporting Actor frontrunner Mahershala Ali (New York Film Critics and Critics Choice winner, Globe and SAG nominee) and Supporting Actress Globe and SAG nominee Naomie Harris.

TFF introduced Clint Eastwood’s airplane rescue drama “Sully,” starring well-reviewed Tom Hanks (Warner Bros.), and Denis Villeneuve’s brainy sci-fi thriller “Arrival” (Paramount), starring Telluride tributee and Best Actress contender Amy Adams, who also stars in Tom Ford’s Venice/TIFF entry “Nocturnal Animals,” which can’t hurt. Hanks landed a Critics Choice nod but no Globe or SAG nominations, while Adams nabbed nominations for all three.

“La La Land”

COURTESY OF SUMMIT ENTERTAINMENT

Also playing well in Toronto was Weinstein Co’s Oscar pick for this year, Garth Davis’s tearjerker “Lion,” starring Dev Patel and Nicole Kidman in a true story about a man who lost his family when he was five years old and uses Google Earth to find them again. Both scored Critics Choice, Globe and SAG nominations.

The New York Film Festival opened with Ava DuVernay’s well-reviewed, powerful documentary “13th,” and debuted Mike Mills’ affectionate 1979 Santa Barbara family drama, “20th Century Women,” starring Annette Bening in a rich leading role as a single mom raising her teen son in a boarding house with help from a younger woman (Critics Choice nominee Greta Gerwig). Bening grabbed Critics Choice and Globe nominations, but no SAG slot.

Don’t count out Jon Favreau’s popular and well-reviewed Rudyard Kipling adaptation “The Jungle Book” (Disney). Like Ang Lee’s “Life of Pi,” the family film could emerge as a strong contender with support from the crafts, although VFX is its strongest suit.

Screening well ahead of release is Ted Melfi’s real-life female empowerment drama “Hidden Figures” (Fox 2000), starring Taraji P. Henson, Jonelle Monae and Globe and SAG nominee Octavia Spencer as three African-American NASA math whizzes who helped to send astronaut John Glenn into orbit. Kevin Costner costars.

“Fences”

Denzel Washington and August Wilson’s screen adaptation of Tony-winning Broadway hit “Fences” (Paramount, December 25) features towering performances from Washington and Viola Davis (who opted to campaign for Supporting Actress), with support from a strong ensemble, many from the 2010 revival, including Stephen Henderson and Mykelti Williamson. It nabbed a coveted SAG ensemble nomination as well as Washington and Davis, with more awards recognition to come. And the Academy directors could commend actor-helmer Washington for successfully opening up the intimate, talky theater piece with help from Danish cinematographer Charlotte Bruus Christensen.

Last up was the much-anticipated new film from Martin Scorsese, gorgeous feudal Japanese missionary drama “Silence,” starring Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver and Liam Neeson, which should earn recognition from the crafts.

Best Picture Contenders Chart (in alphabetical order):

Frontrunners

“Arrival” (Paramount)
“Fences” (Paramount)
“Hell or High Water” (CBS Films)
“La La Land” (Lionsgate)
“Loving” (Focus Features)
“Manchester by the Sea” (Amazon, Roadside Attractions)
“Moonlight” (A24)

Contenders:
“20th Century Women” (A24)
“Hacksaw Ridge” (Lionsgate)
“Hidden Figures” (Fox)
“Jackie” (Fox Searchlight)
“The Jungle Book” (Disney)
“Lion” (Weinstein Co.)

Long Shots:
“A Monster Calls” (Focus Features)
“Silence” (Paramount)
“Sully” (Warner Bros.)