2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Kenneth Lonergan, Denzel Washington and Barry Jenkins look to score their first Best Director nominations against the likes of Martin Scorsese and Clint Eastwood. Updated 12/20/16.

Denzel Washington and Viola Davis at the LA Guild Screening of “Fences” at the Regency Village Theatre.

This year’s Best Director battle boasts frontrunners who emerged from the year’s film festivals.

Breaking out at Sundance was Kenneth Lonergan’s intense four-hankie family drama “Manchester by the Sea,” which is not only a frontrunner for original screenplay and actor (winning the New York Film Critics Circle for both), but director. Lonergan’s portrait of a New England family dealing with death and loss masterfully reveals information in the present and via flashbacks over a disciplined two hours and 15 minutes. Lonergan’s ensemble cast led by Casey Affleck is superb.

“Manchester By the Sea”

Jeff Nichols is in the mix for his measured and refined direction of interracial marriage drama “Loving,” which critics agreed was the one surefire awards contender to emerge from Cannes this year. He brings a grounded urgency to a storyline that could have been rendered as emotion-baiting melodrama. Nichols started the year strong with the well-reviewed sci-fi drama “Midnight Special,” and with respected dramas “Mud” and “Take Shelter” behind him, he may be ready to join the Oscar directors’ club.

READ MORE: 2017 Oscar Predictions

The other Cannes breakout was “Starred Up” director David Mackenzie’s tough contemporary western “Hell or High Water,” starring Chris Pine and Ben Foster as bank robber brothers who are chased by a Texas Ranger (Jeff Bridges). Critics are lauding the year’s biggest indie hit ($26 million). Mackenzie is nominated for the Critics Choice directing award.

“La La Land”

COURTESY OF SUMMIT ENTERTAINMENT

At Telluride, Critics Choice nominee Clint Eastwood unveiled heroic drama “Sully” starring Tom Hanks as a pilot who saved 155 passengers by landing his aircraft on the Hudson River. It’s a strong story well told, and audiences ate it up. Another Critics Choice nomination went to Damien Chazelle, who entered the Oscar race with “Whiplash,” winning two; he won the Critics Choice Award for his audacious show business musical “La La Land,” starring Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling as struggling creative artists. (See “Birdman,” “The Artist,” and “All that Jazz.”). The Globes gave it seven nominations and the Academy is also responding rapturously.

Critics Choice nominee Denis Villeneuve’s gorgeously executed “Arrival” is a brainy sci-fi mind-twister in the mold of Christopher Nolan’s “Interstellar,” ably carried by Amy Adams, and audiences are responsive. Gotham, National Board of Review and New York Film Critics winner Barry Jenkins, who also nabbed Critics Choice and Globes nods, delivers a strong second feature with “Moonlight,” which picked up raves at Telluride, Toronto and New York and gained ground by playing well on the specialty circuit, backed by the best reviews of the year.

Gaining buzz from Venice and Telluride was “Jackie” (December 9, Fox Searchlight), a close-up look at JFK’s grieving widow; it’s Pablo Larrain’s third film of the year (the other is Chilean 2016 Golden Globe entry “The Club” and this year’s Globe nominee “Neruda”) and his first in English. Another indie, “20th Century Women” (A24, December 25), writer-director Mike Mills’ follow-up to “Beginners,” built momentum out of the New York Film Festival, especially for his exemplary cast led by Annette Bening, who nabbed Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations.

Other names in the late-breaking mix are Martin Scorsese with “Silence,” a meditative story of faith in feudal Japan and a multi-hyphenate ready for his first directing nod, Denzel Washington, for his film adaptation of the Tony-winning revival of August Wilson’s “Fences,” which landed a Critics Choice nomination but only acting nods from the Golden Globes.

Don’t count out director Jon Favreau for his superb delivery of “The Jungle Book” (among the best-reviewed movies of the year) starring a live action boy who seemed grounded in a digital universe of animated jungle animals. Sure, A VFX nomination will come, but Favreau made this global blockbuster sing seamlessly, with energy and humor.

Veteran Eastwood is in the running for Best Director for “Sully” along with  “Braveheart” Oscar-winner Mel Gibson, who while earning strong reviews, good box office and an AFI Top Ten slot and Critics Choice and Golden Globes nominations for popular World War II movie “Hacksaw Ridge,” is still a question mark with the Academy.

Where are the women, you ask? Writer-director Rebecca Miller’s sixth feature, sophisticated New York comedy of manners “Maggie’s Plan,” earned kudos at Toronto and Sundance but scored modestly on the specialty circuit ($3.5 million). Sony Pictures Classics sent out early screeners, but Woody Allen aside, relationship comedies do not often compute with Academy voters.

Similarly, Disney heart-tuggers with a humanistic female empowerment theme like “Queen of Katwe,” no matter how much director Mira Nair was praised by critics, simply won’t be sampled by many voters who think they know what the movie is without watching it. What other women directors are in the running? Andrea Arnold’s Cannes prize-winner “American Honey” has scored strong reviews, but is still likely to play best with the arthouse crowd, along with German Maren Ade’s deliciously hilarious, three-hour “Toni Erdmann,” which won five European Film Awards and was shortlisted for the foreign-language Oscar.

Those hoping for women directors competing at the Oscars may have to look at animation, documentary and foreign language categories.

Frontrunners: (in alphabetical order)
Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”)
Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”)
Kenneth Lonergan (“Manchester by the Sea”)
Denis Villeneuve (“Arrival”)
Denzel Washington (“Fences”)

Contenders:
Clint Eastwood (“Sully”)
Jon Favreau (“The Jungle Book”)
Pablo Larrain (“Jackie”)
Mike Mills (“20th Century Women”)
Jeff Nichols (“Loving”)
Martin Scorsese (“Silence”)

Long Shots:
Maren Ade (“Toni Erdmann”)
Andrea Arnold (“American Honey”)
J.A. Bayona (“A Monster Calls”)
Garth Davis (“Lion”)
Mel Gibson (“Hacksaw Ridge”)

source

http://www.indiewire.com/2016/12/2017-oscar-predictions-best-director-1201687977/